Trump did better in areas where ‘deaths of despair’ were highest

Donald Trump speaks at a December 2015 campaign stop at Mid-America Center in Council Bluffs, Iowa. Photo Credit: Matt A.J./Flickr

Donald Trump speaks at a December 2015 campaign stop at Mid-America Center in Council Bluffs, Iowa. According to new research, Trump found significantly more support in areas with high drug, alcohol and suicide mortality rates during the 2016 Presidential election. Photo Credit: Matt A.J./Flickr

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — President-elect Donald Trump found significantly more support in areas with high drug, alcohol and suicide mortality rates during the 2016 Presidential election, according to a Penn State rural sociologist and demographer.

Economic factors seem to explain most of the relationship between Trump’s success and drug, alcohol and suicide deaths — or deaths of despair — in these areas, said Shannon Monnat, assistant professor of rural sociology, demography and sociology.

Shannon Monnat

Shannon Monnat

“Counties that once had strong manufacturing and extraction industries, but then experienced significant decline in those industries over the past three decades are areas that have higher rates of deaths of despair,” said Monnat. “Trump also overperformed most in these types of counties.”

Trump garnered more support in many areas where former Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney struggled against President Barack Obama in the 2012 campaign. He outperformed Romney in 2,469 of the 3,106 counties included in the study. He did better than Romney in 89 percent of counties in the Industrial Midwest, 91 percent of counties in Appalachia and 69 percent of counties in New England.

These regions also have high and increasing rates of death of despair, Monnat added. Nationally, the average drug, alcohol and suicide mortality rate is 36 deaths per 100,000 in the least economically distressed counties and 49 deaths per 100,000 in the most economically distressed counties. In the Industrial Midwest, there were an average of 16.3 deaths per 100,000 more in the most economically distressed counties compared to counties in that region that were least economically distressed and in Appalachia, there were more than 13 deaths per 100,000 more in the most economically distressed counties than in the least economically distressed counties. The most economically distressed counties in New England had an average of 10 deaths per 100,000 more than the least economically distressed counties.

Trump’s anti-free trade and anti-immigration rhetoric seemed to resonate best with people living in those areas, even though Obama carried many of those areas in the prior Presidential election.

“It’s not that these types of mortality, in and of themselves, are driving an increased share of votes for Trump, but that they are underlying more systemic economic and social problems in these counties,” said Monnat. “A large share of this relationship nationally is explained by economic factors like economic distress and large concentrations of working class voters.”

Economic distress is a composite index of six economic factors, including the adult poverty rate, the unemployment rate, the disability rate, the percentage of families with children headed by a single parent, the percentage of households receiving public assistance and the percentage of adults age 18-64 without health insurance.

Economic distress and the presence of working class voters explained about 44 percent of the relationship between deaths of despair and Trump support nationwide, but it explained much more of the relationship in these specific regions, according to Monnat.

“I think Trump’s anti-free trade message resonated in these places and his rhetoric was very simple — Make America great again,” said Monnat. “And you have to understand that in some of these places that have experienced widespread decline in manufacturing and extraction and the types of jobs that pay livable wages, people there really feel like America is not so great anymore. I think the message that he was the change candidate really resonated with people in these places.”

Monnat, who released her findings online in a working paper, used data from the Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In graphics: How Trump conquered the industrial and Democratic heart of the US

Screenshot from a Univision.com article that quoted Penn State Professor Michael Berkman about the 2016 presidential election.

Screenshot from a Univision.com article that quoted Penn State Professor Michael Berkman about the 2016 presidential election.

Michael Berkman, Penn State political science professor and director of the McCourtney Institute for Democracy, was quoted recently in a Univision article about Pennsylvania voters and the presidential election outcome. Here’s an excerpt:

Michael Berkman

Michael Berkman

“During Trump’s repeated visits to the three states, he promised to bring back jobs by canceling free trade treaties, which he blamed for pushing U.S. jobs to other countries. Michael Berkman, a professor at Penn State University, said that ‘definitely there are areas that Trump campaigned harder and had a compelling message.’

“For Ballard and Berkman, the economy was not the only reason for the GOP victory. Trump also had an effective anti-immigration message, and won almost all the counties with white majorities.”

Read more at Univision.com.

The Bush-era Muslim registry failed. Yet the US could be trying it again

A screenshot of the cover page of a May 2012 report by the Penn State Center for Immigrant Rights and the Rights Working Group.

A screenshot of the cover page of a May 2012 report by the Penn State Center for Immigrants’ Rights and the Rights Working Group.

A May 2012 report titled “The NSEERS Effect: A Decade of Racial Profiling, Fear, and Secrets,” by the Penn State Center for Immigrants’ Rights and Rights Working Group has garnered national media attention recently in relation to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals for surveying Muslims once he takes office. Here is an excerpt from a recent CNN article:

“Assuming Trump brings back NSEERS, what will be the likely impact?

“It would be pretty devastating for the Arab and Muslim communities.

“The previous program registered and monitored more than 80,000 men and boys, according to a 2012 report by Penn State Law and Rights Working Group, a coalition of local, state and national rights organizations. More than 13,000 of those registrants were placed in deportation proceedings, the report added.

“Rights groups slammed NSEERS for targeting Arabs and Muslims, striking fear into those communities, confusing registrants with ambiguous and complex instructions that resulted in needless penalties, and even uprooting and tearing families apart.”

Read more at CNN.com.

Other media citing the study include:
— “Will Trump’s plan to register Muslims make it to The White House?” on CSMonitor.com.
— “Trump Campaign’s Talk of Registry and Japanese Internment Raises Muslims’ Fears” on NYTimes.com.
— “Trump camp’s internment talk raises Muslim fears” on BostonGlobe.com.
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